The 8th Feb polls drama

There is too much drama going on in the country around elections. And we know that dramas never happen without directors and producers.

Talat Hussain

With some in Peshawar and Lahore High Courts acting as front-row supporters of the PTI, and the Election Commission getting so sick of it to indicate that holding elections like this is becoming difficult, the much-awaited and scandalized electoral exercise’s 8^th of February date has again started to look touch and go. If there is any certitude around this date, it is the Supreme Court’s insistence that come hail of high water, the nation will vote on that day. But there is too much drama going on to cling to that promise. There is a palpable sense in Islamabad that while they all talk about elections no one wants them to be held.

Why is that? Consider the following.

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) claims that its popularity is on the rise, and that is true. It is a direct beneficiary of the Establishment’s clumsiness that followed quickly on the heels of a stunningly strong reaction to the 9^th May attacks. While the cat and mouse of bail-arrest-bail-arrest is going on and Khadijas of the world are continuously on the mat, the vise has been loosened.  PTI trolls are back; their fake newscasters are working overtime and Hammad Azhar is allowed to become a Che Guevara in hiding. That has given PTI the cause to think that they are rising again.

But they know that popularity means nothing if the electoral stage is tilted. If the Establishment does not want them to win, they cannot win. More importantly, bots and social media hype do not translate into votes. Imran in jail may have got his biometrics done for nomination papers, he is useless behind bars. He can’t even get food of his choice much less an electoral verdict from where he is. So PTI may not want to contest polls because they know that they were not thrown out of power to be allowed back. With their party in tatters and rags, they have no infrastructure to translate their recovered strength into actual numbers.

The Pakistan Muslim League N (PMLN) may not want the polls because they are so confused about how the Establishment is handling Imran Khan and his party. On the one hand, they continuously hear that Imran and Company are an existential threat to the state; and on the other hand in the past few months, they see the state apparatus taking a back seat on tackling this threat. They see a lot of uproar like police raids and all but there is nothing like how the Establishment dealt with them when the Bermuda Triangle of Imran-Faiz-Bajwa was at work — it sucked in everything that remotely threatened their project. Not here. The N’s sense is that this half-hearted attempt at tackling PTI will inevitably trash their chances of winning elections. They may not want to embarrass themselves in this twilight of confusion.

Also, they are not sure of the Establishment’s intentions. Some of them think they are being played. Others are sick of being told that the polls may or may not happen on that date. How can anyone plan an electoral strategy in this situation? (Not that N would have done a great job of planning a strategy if things looked more solid. It is a party that is yet to write its manifesto and whose main leader is still asking for “input” from “all Pakistanis” to formulate a basic document. Talk about being a hopeless case!)

Other parties like the PPP  won’t mind postponement simply because it allows them to play the protagonists for democracy and raise their moral, and political  profile against those who “ran away from the polls.” Delayed polls mean expanded scope for lacerating “the others”. In a country whose politics thrives on thrashing real or imaginary enemies, this can be a golden opportunity to grab constant headlines and dominate the center stage.

For the Establishment, postponed polls are not a pain at all. The caretaker set-up acts like a soldier on command; it sits and stands upon order. Absolute power is a delicious drink. Who wants to let go of it? More to the point, the Establishment’s inner wheels have always been for “more time”. That the caretaker setup has lingered on far, far beyond its mandated scope has only strengthened the narrative that more time can be managed to “fix the country’s core problems”.  The economy can be revived; terrorism can be controlled; Imran can be sorted out; media can be tutored if we have more time.

Besides this there can be other considerations like for instance why allow Nawaz back to replace Imran? Can Nawaz co-exist with General Asim Munir? Can he co-share power?  If he doesn’t, can his brother do the trick that he miserably failed as PDM head? And why are we getting into this him vs dim match? It is hurting our image and neutrality. Why not let it roll like this for another few months? Years may be. Who knows.

I am not saying that this is how the Establishment is thinking. Maybe they are committed to the polls. Maybe they are itching to hand over power to the winners of the next elections. Maybe. Hopefully! But then there is too much drama going on in the country around elections. And we know that dramas never happen without directors and producers. So let’s see what the new season is going to be like.