Pakistan under Shaky Sharif
Pakistan’s political life after the polls and the formation of governments is exactly what it was before the polls—unpredictable, uncertain, living on the edge amidst expanding social chaos
Syed Talat Hussain
201 votes and 24th Prime Minister. Now that Shehbaz Sharif is back in the seat, Pakistan should get on with the business of governance including primarily fixing a chronically ailing economy.
It should, but it might not. That’s not naysaying a new beginning, but only a realistic assessment of the ground reality.
The foremost hurdle in the smooth functioning of the system is the mayhem that is built into its mechanics. Everyone—and I mean everyone—has a grievance against the election result. Baloch, Pashtun, Sindhi nationalists, and the religious right, everyone is crying rigging.
The more vocal among them, the PTI, has already called the National Assembly farcical and fraudulent. This echoes precisely what they said about the 2013 assemblies—a street legend that culminated in the so-called 126-day protest that wasted endless national energies and subverted the whole system. Of course, then it was the Establishment that first civil-engineered this chaos and then let loose Imran upon the assemblies as Pindi and Aabpara’s pet plague.
It is different at present. He is in jail and the Establishment wants to see the assemblies start their work. But anger levels are too high this time around. Bitterness, pettiness, and a mob mentality rule every facet of the present order. The treatment meted out to a female member of the PMLN in the KP assembly’s oath-taking ceremony is but one example of such a lot now feels empowered as a mob and can pounce upon anyone at any point in the name of mandate. The KP under Mr Gandapur looks set to become political intrigue’s paradise and the weakest link in the stability of the system.
The crucial province, from where Imran Khan won a landslide majority, is the jailed leader’s revenge upon an Establishment that he can’t hate enough.
This hate-filled momentum will be reflected in the National Assembly and also in the Punjab Assembly where the PTI and associates have substantial presence. Their mandate from the jail is just one word: sabotage. Sabotage proceedings, sabotage legislation, sabotage personalities, sabotage functioning of the state (consider the letter to the IMF pleading to halt its economic dealings with this government).
So it’s going to be sabotage and of course endless protest. A minority government under such vicious attack from all sides will at best be surviving with the skin of teeth borrowed from shaky allies. But that is not what will save this country from further disasters. A strong arrangement would. That however is not what we have, Shehbaz’s 201 votes notwithstanding.
Moreover, the central government is enormously short on capability. Its seasoned lot has been cut to half. Most have been defeated at the polls while others have left in disgust or disappointment. The new kids in town are just new kids in town. Leading Pakistan with rookies and a limping team is a very worrying scenario.
Shehbaz Sharif’s best bet is that General Asim Munir-led Establishment would make up for his lack of luster and strength. But that’s what his party thought about the poll results as well. That somehow the Establishment would take care of Imran Khan and they would win a comfortable majority. That never materialized. Imran is not just a king of chaos (BBC title), he is a king of constant pain. And PMLN’s simple majority hopes are broken into countless pieces.
The same can happen to the “They will help us and we will help ourselves and everyone will help Pakistan” inane assumption. The Establishment is hardly a bet to count on considering how clumsy it has been in handling the closure of its own Project Imran. Moreover, as the political mess gets thicker — see the visuals of Shehbaz Sharif’s speech and the total mess in the assembly—the Establishment would step back and not step forward to keep the Shehbaz Sharif ship steady.
All said and done, Pakistan’s political life after the polls and the formation of governments is exactly what it was before the polls—unpredictable, uncertain, living on the edge amidst expanding social chaos, fire-fighting all the time. This is the endless cost that I have been warning about since General Raheel Sharif and General Bajwa days. This is the bitter harvest of the seeds sowed by a clutch of small men in big black boots, who are now puffing their cigars and playing golf on lush fields, oblivious to the disastrous consequences of their petty personal agendas.