Modi’s madness is a cover

Modi is playing with fire. But he is not alone in doing this. He has big international backers.

Narendra Modi is not blowing smoke when he threatens Pakistan with war over Pahalgam. He means what he says and says what he means. At least half of it. He wants war but one that remains limited. He wants to “avenge” the killings by “terrorists” but doesn’t want to expand the conflict into a politically costly, diplomatically unsustainable and militarily unproductive campaign of the sort he can’t finish on his own terms.

The question is why Modi wants to do this despite the fact that Pakistan has made it clear that an inch of a move will get a yard of a response. That’s the “notch-up” retaliation the army chief general Asim Munir spoke of standing upon a battle-ready tank. Modi also knows that China has Pakistan’s back and if he starts a war it could go in any direction. Why is he taking such grave risks? Is he mad?

You don’t come this far on the road to power and hold on to it for as long as he has in a country as large as India is by just being mad. You got to be also a hard-nosed, cold, calculating and deviously-minded guy to pull ahead in this game. Guys like him and those on his left (idiomatically) and right (ideologically) would also know that war with a charged-up enemy is serious business that can even become bad business, meaning more losses than gains. So what the hell are they thinking talking of “breaking the back of the backers of terrorists” (BJP-speak for Pakistan)? Have they collectively lost it?

They haven’t. There seems to be a larger purpose at work than what meets the eye. Their war rhetoric is real. This would perhaps follow a simultaneous, multi-pronged manouver: On the east, across international border, LOC and LAC. On the west infiltration by the TTP. Inside Balochistan, the KP, Punjab and Sindh by unleashing terror proxies. In all of this mayhem the Modi team would seek a quick trophy—a few hits inside Pakistan—to claim success.

But that’s not all they seek. Such intense preparation as we see in India is not needed for a touch-and-run war goal. It is entirely possible that India’s spiraling mobilization of anti-Pakistan resources that runs the entire gamut of its ties with Islamabad—from water to media to the IMF to a direct military threat—is meant to create a situation where Pakistan is forced to reach out for its nuclear option to inflict unacceptable damage on the adversary. Ofcourse for Pakistan to go this path, a conventional war has to rage long enough and become damaging enough for Islamabad to turn to the nuclear stockpiles. But theoretically, the stage is set. When a large-scale conventional war breaks out between two nuclear-armed foes, deterrence, for which weapons of mass destruction are kept to begin with, collapses. The mere outbreak of hostilities makes these weapons of never-use as weapons of choice. It is only a question of who would go to them first.

Being a smaller state, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is fairly clear: the nukes are not meant to just deter a vile enemy but also to roll back its advance and defeat its designs. In the present context, Islamabad has used a broad definition of its vital security interests. The National Security Committee mentioned using the full force of the “complete spectrum of National Power”—everything in the depot, nukes included—even on diversion or stoppage of the Indus water. Generally, this intent about the Indus water by India, which is insidious but yet not immediately or fully implementable, would not have required pointing to the “full spectrum response.” But the military thinking is clear on this count: Any attempt to coerce Pakistan, would automatically produce a maximalist stance from this side. Now imagine India targeting infrastructure inside Pakistan and fomenting nation-wide terrorism as a war strategy. That would be a fit case for operationalizing the nuclear option.

This is where it gets scary and crazy but might also offer India the rare chance of turning the whole world (minus China) against Pakistan’s declared intention to go the nuclear path. The world (minus China) is already primed against Pakistan’s nuclear status. President Trump has spoken of “some countries that have nuclear weapons shouldn’t have nuclear weapons.” He wasn’t talking about Iran which does not have nuclear weapons. You have doddering old fools like John Bolton talking about declaring Pakistan a terrorist state and justifying India’s “limited strike”. But he isn’t the only one creating a pathway for Delhi to start a war. The US VP J.D. Vance almost assumed that India had to do something limited and only concerned himself with the worry over “wider regional conflict.”

They all know that there is nothing limited about this confrontation. They know that Pakistan WILL do everything in its considerable power to punish India by raising the cost of its misadventure. Why allow India this strange latitude of a limited strike? Why not intervene decisively and defuse a combustible situation that can flare up into a nuclear exchange? Is it about ensuring that Pakistan does actually make the first move towards the use of nuclear weapons and then create a global case for its de-nuclearisation? Is it about joining the devious dots of ‘Terrorism sponsorship+Nuclear nastiness’ to build the line of reasoning that the world cannot allow this to happen? Make them use nukes for them to lose nukes?

Remember Pakistan without nuclear weapons is a big loss to China and a massive gain for the US for that reason. Pakistan without nuclear weapons allows India to expand its strategic foot-print. Pakistan without nukes is a formidable source of comfort to Israel whose main concern now includes a growing desire among the rich Arab States and even Turkey to consider cementing their defences with a nuclear wall, and is worried that Pakistan’s expertise and help might be sought for these purposes.

All three agree that their interests are best served by a Pakistan bereft of its nuclear cover. But they also know that the capability is far too advanced to be taken out by military means. However, it can be sanctioned, restricted, starved of financial sustenance and made a pariah like that of North Korea’s. Where do they start and when do they start? Whenever Pakistan is compelled to bring nukes out in response to India’s provocations. Modi knows the cost of war for India and the risk he runs that includes even losing it in the short run. But if he could create a scenario where Pakistan’s choices start to include operationalization of the nuclear option, he could bring the world to stop Islamabad in its tracks. He is not just playing for ‘avenging’ Pahalgam—a fiction many even in India are now questioning. He is playing for a larger purpose.

But this is a fraught gamble. Missiles with nuclear warheads and jets fitted with nuclear bombs fly faster than international diplomats can start “coercive diplomacy” against Pakistan. Swift retort means real-time response from Pakistan. It won’t leave any time for negotiations and sanctions. Modi is playing with fire. But he is not alone in doing this. He has big international backers.