From SCO to Barkha Dutt
When this summit is over, it would be remembered in Pakistan for the fact that it did happen and (hopefully) happened peacefully – that all the regional heavy hitters arrived and sat together...
As Pakistan hosts the 23rd summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the country is in the grip of a healthy tension. The summit has become a test case of Pakistan’s capability to harness the event to its various advantages, including, but not confined to, showcasing itself to the world as a safe hub for handling big-ticket events. The exceptional security measures are an effort to have an incident-free summit. Immediately, this is the prime goal of the hosts.
Aside from this, the gathering is also important to offer regional perspective on the heightened turbulence that is yelping at Pakistan’s borders. Iran is bracing for Israel’s attack; Russia is getting deeply involved in the Ukrainian morass. China’s global tussle with the US is widening by the day. Afghanistan has become a sinister neighbour. India remains a perennial threat. The rise of terrorism and regional uncertainties and wars make Pakistan geo-economically more vulnerable than ever before.
The layers of core security and energy-related concerns of Pakistan are all on the table as part of the SCO summit agenda. Progress on any of these will be of benefit to Pakistan. The SCO gathering, therefore, is significant for more than just the fact that everyone, including the Indian Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and the Chinese Premier, Li Qiang (after 11 years), is landing here. It is a rare opportunity to complement, through regional cooperation, the multiple challenges that are affecting Pakistan’s state and economy directly.
Will this summit be a game-changer for Pakistan? Many castles in the air are being built, and none would stand the test of real outcomes. SCO is not a forum of like-minded or similarly-oriented states. Many frenemies sit around the same table – India and Pakistan, China and India. Even Iran is an odd ball, considering the fact Pakistan had a missile exchange with Tehran a few months ago.
From democracy to strategic interests to indices of economic and social development, the forum is as diverse and internally challenged as you can imagine. This contrasts sharply with its stated aims to promote cooperation and peace among its member states, fostering a new democratic, fair and rational international political and economic order.
Its objectives include promoting regional peace, stability and prosperity through cooperation in politics, economics, culture and combating terrorism, extremism and separatism. These also embrace enhancing energy cooperation and establishing the SCO as a self-sufficient energy system. And then the loftiest of them all: countering Western political and economic dominance.
To be fair, SCO has not done badly. Consider the following:
Security Collaboration: The SCO has established itself as the primary security organization in Central Asia, with notable successes in counterterrorism measures. Between 2011 and 2015, the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) reported thwarting 20 planned terrorist attacks, disrupting 650 terrorist crimes and arresting 2,700 extremist group members.
Energy Cooperation: The SCO Energy Club has enhanced cooperation between major energy producers and consumers, supporting projects like the Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline.
Economic Development: The SCO has promoted economic development and cultural dialogue to prevent radicalization of vulnerable populations.
Anti-Drug Trafficking: The organization has accounted for 14% of confiscated drugs worldwide between 2012 and 2017.
It has also grown to include more members. The SCO expanded to include India and Pakistan in 2017 and Iran in 2023, bringing the total to nine member states. Belarus joined in July 2024. The organization also includes three observer states and 14 dialogue partners.
But the forum has not pulled significant weight in times of extreme international and regional turmoil. Three of its largest members – Russia, China and India – go in different directions when it comes to strategic influence and interests. Their hidden and declared alliances are designed against each other. Pakistan and Iran grapple with tough domestic situations apart from grave transnational threats. Central Asian members are a mixed bag of prospects and perils.
The SCO is not a giant achiever. It is not a forum that would make a real difference in a world where bilateralism and unilateralism trump multilateral cooperative ventures. It has no immediate answers to the questions that hang thick over the heads of countries like Pakistan.
Therefore, when this summit is over, it would be remembered in Pakistan for the fact that it did happen and (hopefully) happened peacefully – that all the regional heavy hitters arrived and sat together, that the nation saw what Islamabad can look like minus Gandapur, and that Mian Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, averse to meeting most Pakistani journalists, got the chance to meet Barkha Dutt.