Everything’s Gonna Be Alright

The world of General Asim Munir-led Establishment is quiet, calm, and hopeful even as the country echoes with forecasts of doom and gloom.

What a week! Nasty, brutal, bare-knuckled, no-holds-barred.

When it started, it looked like a total judiciary show. On Monday one set of judges tore the heart out of the Faizabad Dharna investigation commission report that tried to save the previous Establishment from blame of arranging and instigating 2018’s fantastic display of fanaticism. Another set of judges asked the jail administration to ensure in two weeks that Chaudhary Pervaiz Illahi, Establishment’s horse bolted to the PTI and now a pet target of humiliation, is put in the comfort of house arrest and given medical attention of his choice. Yet another froze nearly 75 provincial and national assembly reserved seats that should have gone to the PTI but were distributed to the Shehbaz government and allies on technical grounds. And as the evening wore off, Justice Babar Sattar wrote a letter to the Islamabad High Court about vicious social media campaign against him, paving the way for the court to turn the statement into a formal complaint for contempt proceedings fit for hearing.

But then it switched gears; off went black robe, and on came khaki uniform, from head to toe.

First, DG ISPR spoke to the press and left nothing to imagination as far as the Army high command’s view of the PTI’s role in 9th May riots is concerned. “You are the culprit. Say sorry and be ready for prosecution.” This was the message.

The PTI jumped for the Army’s jugular—personal insults, accusations of planning the mayhem themselves, threats of public wrath, reminders of the making of Bangladesh, endless memes that mocked the men in uniform and defined them as anti-people.

Then came the meteoroid.

On Thursday, the 9th May anniversary, the army chief General Asim Munir vowed to bring the perpetrators of the riots (read PTI) to justice and promised to not drop the ball of accountability this year. He spoke of digital terrorism and how the real culprits are now distorting irrefutable evidence of their culpability (read Imran Khan). His message was “Enough is enough. Buckle up and brace for impact”.

The PTI’s barrage of insults didn’t stop. It intensified.

All of their known leaders heaped shame and blame on the army leaders. The chief minister of KP declared that he would take over the governor house in case an attempt is made to undo his government through an administrative action. Not missing the opportunity Maulana Fazlur Rehman, smarting under the insult of being shortchanged in power deals that he assumed would bring his party to power, blasted the army, warning the generals to behave or else! At the end of the week the situation is fraught. Hate lava has burst through the surface. A big blast seems to be gathering steam.

This should ring alarm bells in the highlands of the Establishment. After all, the singular target of these attacks is the General Asim Munir-led deep state, which, for its part, has marked Bull’s Eye on the PTI’s chest and seems to be straightening its aim. This isn’t good for stability. This foretells chaos. But, surprisingly, an unruffled calm pervades the land of the powers that be. Powerful representatives of the deep state ridicule the notion that these and other developments are eating into the vitals of their command over the system. While they don’t sing Everythings Gonna Be Alright, they do whistle worry-less tunes close to that effect. Here are some of the more interesting reasons they cite for being cool.

They think the PTI’s propaganda barrage is creating more space for them to crackdown on hate-speech and regulate the social media. They think that the more PTI leaders throw mud at them, the more they muddy political waters for themselves justifying the highhanded treatment they are getting at present.

They are also very comfortable with the way the world has reacted to the PTI’s global campaign against the army and the ISI. They see no chink in the armour of their ties with Washington, Beijing, Riyadh, the UAE. They see everyone engage with them and discuss things that are NOT PTI related. They see good prospects of quick Saudi investments, an IMF deal and the economy slowly but steadily turning the corner. With inflation getting under control and stock market (which made history on Friday as it closed on the highest index ever, above 73000 points), and the business community totally engaged with the generals and the central government (in this sequence) they see no national crisis on the horizon. Two years of economic upturn, more jobs coming up, and KP, Imran’s bastion, being driven to governance madness by a directionless CM with severe anger management issues, the space for a political rebellion will automatically shrink. Two years, they think, Imran can be kept behind bars and in the meantime his party might start to split at the seams.

Now, much of the above might sound like a fairytale. Some parts probably are. But that’s not the point. The point is that this is the prism that the Establishment is using to look at the situation in the country today. If they feel confident to take on Imran Khan decisively for 9 May riots and punch his party in the nose by removing the velvet glove, it is because they think the worst economic and political time is behind them.

I don’t think that the national scene at this point is cut as simply as the Establishment’s view makes it look like. The head-on collision that is now set between the army high command and the PTI is one factor that can send the whole system in a tailspin. Also, the judiciary is on a warpath with the generals. That can severely truncate the Establishment’s room to make its moves. And there are other factors of real instability as well including public protests of different variety—consider AJK’s terrible situation— and expanding terrorism.

But these observations nothwithstanding, the world of General Asim Munir-led Establishment is quiet, calm, and hopeful even as the country echoes with forecasts of doom and gloom. The Establishment thinks the ultimate solution to what ails the nation is near. For us lesser mortals, however, the only thing that looks near is the edge of the precipice and a country precariously balanced on the brink.