Establishment, Imran’s friend in deed

The more the Establishment uses (or abuses) its power, the wider Imran’s narrative resonates. Defiance, victimhood, martyrdom.

Syed Talat Hussain

Nearly, two years after his removal from office through a vote of no confidence, Imran Khan continues to haunt the Establishment.

As the third government led by Shehbaz Sharif takes charge after his departs from the PM House, Imran shows no signs of fading away. Far from that. Like a blast from the past, he is grabbing headlines, expanding his political influence, notching up higher public ratings, and since his party’s remarkable showing in the Feb-8 polls, controlling electorate’s emotions.

He seems to defy the conventional wisdom of national politics that suggests that anyone who takes on the powerful military does not live to fight another day. He is doing better than surviving. He has become a long thorn in the Establishment’s side.

What is happening?

Several things. One, his opponents are his biggest friends.

The Establishment is confused about him. They never thought he would turn out to be such a tough nut to crack. They have fired their serious salvos of convictions and even a practical dissolution of his marriage at him and yet have not found a solution to his real strength—his narrative. He is a child of chaos. He thrives and nourishes on controversy that he spins to his advantage. This is precisely what the Establishment provided in the name of containing him.

Throwing him out of power was a bad idea as it allowed him a new lease of life. He became a political victim. Not holding elections for a long time was even worse. This gave him time to play on people’s frustrations over the rising cost of living and inflation. His convictions came just before the polls and this was a godsend to him as from a super victim of state “persecution”. He became a martyr.

In the elections, this martyrdom was cashed and now he is a politically re-endorsed demi-god for his party members who rally around him because they know he can take them to political places. The Establishment tried to deal with a political challenge through administrative stress. In its hubris, it forgot that politicians have nine lives and as long as their constituencies are intact they can always bounce back.

Two, the Establishment’s prejudice against a strong alternative to Imran Khan created more space for him. The wrong lesson they drew from his experience was that when they were with him—Bajwa and Raheel years—they gave him too much authority and that no other government should have that luxury.

So the next government—the present lot—has borne the brunt of this terrible conclusion. It is an ultra-hybrid regime. The creation of this system has angered and alienated even those who were building a political dyke against Imran’s tide of mayhem and madness.

From the religious right that once called him a global plant to nationalists who hated him for his pro-Talibaan proclivities, most now have a soft corner for him. The party in power, the PML-N is smarting from the wounds of being reduced to a husk and shadow in the polls. In the inner circles of the party, you hear open talk about how the Establishment shortchanged Nawaz Sharif to create a pliant political system that it could manipulate at will.

Whether it did or didn’t is a separate debate; the outcome of it all, however, is that Imran has no political opponent who could challenge him decisively and emphatically. He has a free run.

Three, the Establishment is wrong-headed about its power and popularity. It has power alright. But this stems from the barrel of the gun. It’s popularity is grounded in fear. Its past and present deeds contribute to these two realities. The Establishment is not popular in the political sense. In fact, it is notorious in the political sense. This oxygenates Imran.

The more the Establishment uses (or abuses) its power, the wider Imran’s narrative resonates. Defiance, victimhood, martyrdom. That’s what the Establishment has given Imran and that’s what he could have wished for in these circumstances.

So what happens now? The Establishment is riding a tiger here. The time to tame, cage, change, and leash him is gone. From voting him out of office to delaying 9th May riot prosecutions to playing extra smart with their allies against him, the Establishment has reduced its options to near zero. They know what they cannot allow—Imran back in power. But they are clueless as to how to make it happen.

So they are firefighting. They call it strategy. And if in the middle of this glorious mess, Donald Trump wins Washington and decides that his buddy needs rescue, Imran’s captivity and convictions would become mere chains of cotton and wool. Like Kung Fu Panda’s Tai Lung, Imran could spring back to battle those who originally trained him. There will be no Po to stop his path. Because the Po has been destroyed at the polls. It will be him vs Shifu. Interesting times ahead—all over again!