Establishment after Feb 8 polls
...from here onwards, life isn’t going to be the same for the Establishment.
Syed Talat Hussain
If the General Asim Munir-led military Establishment had envisaged a politically stabler Pakistan after the Feb-8 polls then the country at present is anything but that.
Every political party is up in arms against the results they believe are manufactured to their detriment. If it had planned to defeat Imran Khan’s toxic narrative of the Establishment being the architect of all crises (including the 9th May riots that the jailed PTI leader has infamously dubbed as a “false flag op”) by holding him to account through popular polls, then the exact opposite has happened.
Around 18 million have elected independent candidates fielded by the PTI. They are now the largest group in the National Assembly. If it had wanted international support and approval of the electoral process, that has not been forthcoming. The world has been exceptionally impolite in making its pointed reservations on the polls known. The State Department’s back-to-back statements are a stark reminder of the fact that Pakistan’s democracy box isn’t ticked. This alongside a consistent global reprimand on human rights, freedom of expression, and political association and activities makes for a poor scorecard.
If the Establishment had wanted to create a strong civilian bulwark against Imran’s divisive politics and to de-legitimize his claim of being a victim of a “foreign conspiracy”, that goal has been missed by miles. The polls have re-legitimized Imran. It has boosted his accusations and ‘Harry Potter’ theories—cartoonish and fictional but now folklore.
The weak minority government to be led by weak-kneed Shehbaz Sharif is fractured within. Its main component, the PML-N, is humbled and humiliated by the charge of being a product of rigged polls. Its topman, Nawaz Sharif, believes he has been short-changed by the Establishment that soiled and spoiled his victory to keep him out of power. His close aides cite the defeat of all of Nawaz Sharif’s core supporters—and conversely the victory of his more pliant brother’s close aides—through results that defy all electoral logic.
This includes victories of PTI newcomers who had never set foot in their constituencies nor ran any campaign worth the name and yet won by massive margins. It also includes the mind-boggling fact of absconders, jail inmates, and wanted or in-hiding PTI candidates getting cleared to take part in the polls even though the system seemingly was geared up to punish them for attacking state assets in the May 9th bloody rampage.
Shorn of the moral high ground and seething with quiet anger over Nawaz Sharif’s ignominy, the PML-N is now the centerpiece of a federal government that will be brought to power by its reluctant endorser, the Pakistan People’s Party that has chosen to stay out of the upcoming cabinet. This classic minority government is also backed by the MQM, representing urban Sindh, which is accused by the PPP of winning a fake victory in the financial never center of Pakistan, Karachi. You don’t have to guess who the PPP privately blames for stealing “their seats” and handing them over to the MQM.
Deep distress and distrust sit at the heart of a government that is yet to be formed.
Then the parliament will have the PTI on the opposition benches. With their large numbers, their dedicated task would be to ensure that Shehbaz Sharif’s minority government remains stuck and is paralyzed by endless protests.
If the Establishment had desired for a functional federation where provincial policies are aligned with core national objectives, 2024 polls have yielded a result that is electorally not designed for this purpose. The PPP controls Sindh. The PML-N controls Punjab. The PTI controls KP. And in Balochistan, the PPP and the PML-N compete to form a government whose legitimacy is questioned by every nationalist, sub-nationalist, and religious party. Balochistan has seen the strongest and the least reported protests over the outcome of the poll that has locked national highways for days on end.
There are other issues too.
The KP under the PTI is likely to pander to both the Taliban (Imran Khan’s abiding love) and the ultra-nationalists like the PTM (Imran’s convenient love). Both, on the face of it, are anathema to the Establishment. Sindh is caught in a spiral of under-development but the absence of an alternative to the PPP—the party has won a huge majority beating its own provincial records—makes it impossible to generate any realistic national debate on its real challenges. The PPP insists that Sindh is a model province.
Punjab will be run by Mariam Nawaz, who is a first-timer in the assembly and will be tested severely by the task of managing the country’s largest and most populous unit. Moreover, she is personally detested by Imran Khan whose nominee for the chief ministerial slot in the KP province, Amin Gandapur, has made a career out of character assassinating Ms. Mariam. PTI trolls are drooling over the prospect of Mariam Nawaz at the helm. The viciousness of the attacks that will come her way will only vitiate and degrade media debate and spread bad blood.
These are not elements of a functional federation that has critical decisions to make about revenue generation by the provinces and allocating resources to them from a shrinking kitty.
The army chief has endorsed poll results but that is a statement made too early considering how remarkably-challenged the elections have become. The deep state’s deep post-poll thinking is not in the public realm. Anyone who claims to know what is cooking in top-heads is kite-flying. However, it does not require a special genius to consider the reality of the operational environment that surrounds their discussion tables.
The country is more divided, more volatile, and more uncertain than before. Governance looks more complicated than before. The Establishment looks more controversial than before with fewer friends in politics than before. The comfort of power that flows from the barrel of the gun and a decisive say in the affairs of the country through forums like the Special Investment Facilitation Council is a mirage. Countries are run on the steam of social contracts and political consensus and not through contraptions like SIFC. This steam has gone missing from the land. Power exercised or policies made in this vacuum are a meaningless pursuit. These are unsustainable.
Moreover, election results have made it decisively difficult to implement the 9th May paradigm that excluded Imran Khan and his core team from the political equation. Imran’s party has won more than seats. It has won a genuine vote-bank. Imran is back with a vengeance and a popular vote. We know vote banks don’t retire. Military commanders do and when they do their policies retire too.
Regardless of what formulas are applied to keep things “under control”, from here onwards, life isn’t going to be the same for the Establishment. It stands precariously on a slippery slope. As does the country.