A letter from hell
Every day the Establishment is bleeding more and more. Everyday there is a cut. Every day there is a wound.
What a day! Imran’s wife Bushra threatens the Army Chief, the DG ISI, and the DG-C of dire consequences in case something were to happen to her husband, and then after media uproar, uses her mouthpieces to explain that she meant it differently. Terrorists strike in Shangla and kill Chinese working on the critical $5b plus hydroelectric dam in KP province’s northern district. Then six judges of the 8-member Islamabad High Court jointly pen a letter to the Supreme Judicial Council calling to attention the “manipulation and harassment” of judges by ISI operatives.
Immediately, Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf machinery gets into the act and launches a blitz of compliments to the “heroes” of Pakistan. Its jailed leader’s X account posts a long self-congratulatory message to the Supreme Court asking for justice, emphasizing that his struggle for real democracy is now bearing fruit. Social media is going crazy over the prospect of the arrival of a revolution that would turn the tables on the Establishment.
Is Pakistan’s military Establishment facing its moment of truth? Is it really in the throes of a slow Waterloo?
On the face of it, the opposite seems to be true. Rawalpindi and Abpara—locational euphuisms for the Army and the ISI—have pretty much everything under control. The Shehbaz Sharif government is pliant; the parallel policy body, the SIFC, Special Investment Facilitation Council, now runs the economy. The world’s important capitals deal directly with the Army Chief, who has a say in all important decisions including who gets which cabinet post or responsibilities in other important bodies and institutions. And as terrorist attacks rise, the extra policy centrality that the security setup can always claim in such circumstances adds an additional weight to his voice.
These are not signs of waning of the Establishment’s influence but of copy-book implementation of the praetorian state model combined with the attributes of a garrison government.
But appearances are deceptive. Regardless of the expanding influence and presence of the Pakistani Establishment in the country’s power structure, this formidable behemoth is bleeding at the knees. There is much anecdotal evidence to prove the point.
This letter by the judges is just one. The thousands of insults that the Establishment receives every day at the hands of social media hitmen is another. The PTI’s electoral victory and return to the political fold of a majority of those who were wanted in the 9th May riots is yet another. Judges rubbishing justifications for trying civilians in military courts is another on the list. The much-hyped Cypher case getting a beating during case proceedings is itself a scandalous insult to the Establishment that has maintained that this is a grave breach of national security.
But the most striking example of the Establishment’s black eye is that all these developments endorse, expand, promote, project, and market Imran Khan’s narrative that a few generals are responsible for the present-day situation in the country and that they are the ones audaciously mauling core freedoms, including his freedom to be free.
The six judges’ letter frames this charge against the Establishment in legal terms when the writers ask the Supreme Court chief justice and senior judges to convene a judicial convention to find a way to report instances of outright interference. The events that they quote in the letter tally precisely with what Imran Khan and his party allege: torture, blackmail, electronic eavesdropping, illegal recordings, and even kidnapping.
They also target their senior judge, the chief justice of the Islamabad High Court, for not taking any action even when they all brought these events to his notice. This echoes PTI’s consistent stance that this particular chief justice is biased against them.
Admittedly, the six judges don’t come across as men with clean hands when you look at the fact that some of them were happy partners in the manipulation of cases against Nawaz Sharif’s party members. Some were dead quiet when one of their own, the now-retired Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqi, was chucked out of his job for speaking against ISI operatives’ interference and suffered personal persecution. Then none of them spoke a word and carried on as if the retired judge was the culprit in chief. At least one of these six judges has serious allegations of financial wrongdoings hanging over his head. At least three of them are known to be sympathetic to Imran Khan. But that’s not the issue now. The issue is that they have spoken as a pack and it is unprecedented the way they have documented their complaint.
This matter is now being taken up by lawyers wings and powerful bars in the country. The Supreme Court has no option other than to throw its full weight behind calls for an open and decisive probe into these allegations.
So all things considered, starting today the public case for holding the generals to account would be so strong that all efforts to link it to a political or personal bias would fail. You may also see local courts taking heart from this momentum against the Establishment and may start throwing out cases against Imran Khan and his party members. The letter can potentially trigger a tsunami of resentment against the Establishment that won’t be contained by the usual tactics of muzzling the media.
This puts Imran Khan on a new high. He now feels vindicated and empowered and would be thinking that his time in jail is probably the best thing that could have happened to him. He has become a martyr, a saviour, a victim, and a visionary while being behind bars for crimes that would have ruined anyone’s political career forever.
This fact alone is the ultimate kick at the Establishment’s shins. The man they tried so hard to defeat and politically destroy is now the centerpiece of a gathering assault on the Establishment power to which they don’t seem to have an answer. Just like they don’t seem to have any answer to consistent attacks on them from social media platforms. Just like they don’t seem to have any answer to the terrorist attacks that are happening with disturbing frequency. Just like they don’t seem to have any answer to the growing resistance from those judicial quarters that they once controlled with their little finger.
An Establishment that does not have answers or counters to so many challenges and which is losing ground and public trust with each passing day cannot be considered an ascendant power.
It may have a structural grip on the echelons of power, but it is losing big time on multiple fronts. The letter, the social media, the judges, and the political rhythm that points open fingers at the generals are symptomatic of troubles that are often associated with declining fortunes. Yes, the Establishment still controls the gun, but it does not control the expanding narrative that is defying its applied and often abused power. Every day the Establishment is bleeding more and more. Everyday there is a cut. Every day there is a wound. This must be maddening. And strange things can happen in maddening times.